tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14072474.post8718857580803009724..comments2023-11-03T06:36:27.305-04:00Comments on Phronesisaical: Egypthelmuthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09069600766378586919noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14072474.post-88959571001081739062011-01-30T18:17:08.466-05:002011-01-30T18:17:08.466-05:00One person I've seen - I think Marc Lynch - ha...One person I've seen - I think Marc Lynch - has mentioned Algeria since Helmut did.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Paul Krugman <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/the-manila-parallel/" rel="nofollow">brings in the Philippines.</a>Cheryl Roferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082102629165547210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14072474.post-24399862317134649752011-01-30T14:25:58.219-05:002011-01-30T14:25:58.219-05:00Thanks for these informative posts and comments. W...Thanks for these informative posts and comments. While it is certainly possible (as many a book and PhD thesis demonstrate) to come up with stylized facts / general paradigms about revolutions, as I have been studying Francisco Madero and the Mexican Revolution of 1910, I have to agree with Cheryl, that each revolution really is its own wild card. A little known fact, well documented in recent books and open to the eyes of anyone who wants to go look in his archive, is that Madero was a spiritist and a medium and he ran for office and later led the Revolution on the advice of discarnate spirits. That is a bit of a square peg for the round hole of theory, no?Anything can happen. Maybe we all should have bought solar batteries.C.M. Mayohttp://madammayo.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14072474.post-59314011178719558932011-01-29T18:19:45.805-05:002011-01-29T18:19:45.805-05:00Welcome back to the Web, Helmut!
Imagine how the ...Welcome back to the Web, Helmut!<br /><br />Imagine how the commentariat would gloat if that outage happened in, say, Moscow!<br /><br />You make a good point - Algeria is one more possible example. My own feeling is that every revolution is <em>sui generis</em> and could go in any number of directions, depending on the fervor of the people, the recalcitrance of the government, the availability and desirability of alternatives, outside influences, and any number of random things that might or might not happen.<br /><br />So one can consider historical precedents and see parallels. I can't believe that Mubarak hasn't thought about Gorbachev. But there's been a too-easy assumption taken from a totally inadequate understanding of the events of the late eighties that people go into the streets and then there's a democratic government with no blood. <br /><br />Not that simple.Cheryl Roferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082102629165547210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14072474.post-58416762441522503392011-01-29T10:42:42.709-05:002011-01-29T10:42:42.709-05:00I was one of those in DC who lost power for a day ...I was one of those in DC who lost power for a day and internet for nearly three days after the latest snowstorm. It's moving so quickly that I've missed a lot of what's happening in Egypt and I'm probably just repeating what's been said days ago. But... <br /><br />I don't see any reference anywhere to Algeria 1992, when decades of colonial and post-colonial dictatorial rule finally ceded some ground to democratic parliamentary elections. A great moment, despite a repressive government. But when it became clear that the extremely conservative Front Islamique du Salut was going to win the elections, the government called it all off. The FIS ran on a platform of strict sharia law, which included rejecting democratic elections. What is a repressive government to do? The result was a nasty civil war characterized by terroristic forms of violence.<br /><br />Democratically-elected to outlaw democracy... one of the great modern reminders of the fragility of democratic institutions.<br /><br />Not that Egypt is the same country or has the same history or situation. But it does have a growing Islamic fundamentalist movement. From what I understand, the Egyptian fundamentalist groups are splintered and the largest of them renounce political-religious violence. But the Coptic church attack a few weeks ago was a hint of the simmering potential - maybe of smaller groups using terroristic tactics, which make small seem a lot larger, but still. <br /><br />Anyway, just a consideration. I spent a few weeks in Egypt once and know only a little about its modern history, so I'm sure someone else can shed light here. <br /><br />My only point is that, although it's exciting to see the increasing boldness of democratic demands made on governments in the Maghreb and Middle East, there's the possibility of an entirely different direction for governance with just as significant consequences for regional and even global politics.helmuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09069600766378586919noreply@blogger.com