Iranian Iraq

Spiegel has an eye-opening article on Iranian influence in Iraq. Much of the reporting and analysis we've seen thus far discusses Iranian machinations either in the abstract of geopolitical logic or through the haze of political rhetoric. Here's a dose of reality to back up some of the claims being tossed around. So much for the dominos falling the administration's way. This may now be a large part of the reasoning behind "staying the course" in Iraq. From an Iranian perspective, the country certainly does not want an American puppet next door. So, perhaps the Iraq War is now best viewed as being, in part, a proxy war between the US and Iran. It appears the US is losing this war too.

Civil war would likely be acceptable to the administration as it would provide a "domestic matters" excuse to extract the US from Iraq. Abandoning the people of Iraq to anarchy is low on the list of concerns (since the US invasion and occupation created these conditions). But an Iranian regime in Iraq would be unacceptable since this represents not only a loss for the US in Iraq proper, but also a loss in the broader region whose effects the US will face for decades if not centuries.

Don't put it past the Bush administration to get out anyway, and lie through its teeth to spin a victory. In addition to the ongoing violence and anarchy and the inability of Green Zone Iraqis to agree upon a constitution that doesn't fuel all-out civil war, however, the growing influence of Iran renders the conflict Sisyphean.

According to a report in US newsmagazine Time, Iran is waging a "secret war for Iraq," with Tehran maintaining a dense spy network, bribing politicians and providing militant groups with logistics and weapons. A Pentagon document has even reported that Iranian death squads have been active in Iraq. "It is clearly and undoubtedly the case," said US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, adding fuel to the fire, "that Iranian weapons have been found in Iraq." This, says Rumsfeld, is "a problem for the coalition forces, a problem for the international community and, ultimately, a problem for Iran."....

...Iran's handwriting is obvious in the political process, which Iraqis hope to move forward by ratifying the constitution this week. Jaafari's Daawa Party and the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, the two leading Shiite groups, are in favor of family law based strictly on religious principles, as well as a sort of shadow government consisting of leading Shiite dignitaries. For secular Iraqis, this is nothing but the germ cell of a guardian council based on the Iranian model.

Especially in southern Iraq, Tehran, unhindered by British troops, is working to bring about the de facto partition of Iraq, warn critics. "Cities like Basra, Amara and Nasiriyah are already completely controlled by the Iranian intelligence service."

This view is shared by many in the south, where Tehran's allies are resorting to increasingly harsh and unrelenting tactics in an effort to bring about their vision of a Shiite theocracy. Women being forced to wear the chador, shops that sell alcohol or music are the targets of bombings, and Christians are derisively branded in the press as "Nazarenes" -- critics are putting their lives on the line by openly opposing Iran....

...Major General Hassan Sawadi Al-Saad, Basra's chief of police, also hints at Iranian influence: "All I can say is that 80 percent of our police officers do not obey my commands."