Alan Garcia

Interesting (though not totally unpleasant) stuff happening in Peru, where Alan Garcia, yesterday defeated Hugo Chavez-backed Ollanta Humala (another former Army type). Were it not for the occasional violence between supporters of the two candidates, this would appear to be a pretty positive development in Peru. Garcia (follow the link to the BBC summary), who was president from 1985-1990, pretty much sunk the country economically, alienating all kinds of foreign investment. His successors--most notably Fujimori--have managed to get the foreign investment back and the per-capita income averages up, but still without really helping most of Peru's poor, who happen to be very poor. So it's Garcia's chance again.

Peru is also back on good terms with the IMF, which has lent it money to help support market-based economic reforms.

However, Peru still has one of the worst income distributions in Latin America and poverty levels have remained stubbornly high at about 52%.

As a consequence, the majority of the population have seen little or no benefit from Peru's newly-regained macro-economic stability.

Small wonder, then, that the most business-friendly candidate for the Peruvian presidency, Lourdes Flores, was eliminated in the first round, leaving voters with a choice between a failed former president and a disciple of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez.

Now Mr Garcia has a unique chance to build on the achievements of recent years - and to roll back the big increase in poverty that took place on his watch.

But if he squanders the opportunity, he risks going down in history as a double failure.