Sunday, July 23, 2006
Israeli planning
Good analysis on the Israel-Lebanon situation by Juan Cole today. He suggests that the current bombings on Lebanon were planned for some time with the knowledge of the US Dept. of Defense.
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3 comments:
Reminds me of the Project for the New American Century and the plan for invading Iraq. When the Supreme Court selected Bush in 2000, my boss at the time turned to me and said, "Well, we're heading back to Iraq."
Although I would argue that modern militaries almost always have contigency plans for destroying the infrastructure of potential enemies, giving powerpoint presentations a year before the fact belies the Israeli government's spin of an almost improvised response.
Long on polemic, short on fact. I'm no fan of the Israeli bombing campaign in Lebanon, but for an academic Cole did an awful job supporting his analysis.
Claims about an impending Israeli invasion of Iran, collusion with the U.S. military (PowerPoint presentations? is that the best you've got?) and long-term goals of dominating southern Lebanon sound evil and conspiratorial, but Cole provides no proof.
And yeah, modern militaries do indeed have contingency plans. The American military has had a plan for invading Canada since 1930.
Yes, agreed. Militaries draw up contingency plans for even the oddest scenarios. A PowerPoint isn't going to do it as proof of invasion plans.
But, all in all, I think Cole makes a more reasonable assessment than thsoe that otherwise try to fit bombing the Beirut airport, northern Lebanon, and Christian areas of Beirut into some plan to either defend itself or uproot Hezbollah. I have to agree with Cole that this has looked like a broader plan from the beginning intended to destabilize the region. And I think we have decent evidence that Cole is right when he says that, "The chief outcome of the "war on terror" has been the proliferation of asymmetrical challengers. Israel's assault on the very fabric of the Lebanese state seems likely to weaken or collapse it and further that proliferation. Since asymmetrical challengers often turn to terrorism as a tactic, the "war on terror" has been, at the level of political society below that of high politics and the state, the most efficient engine for the production of terrorism in history."
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