France Saves Our Asses?

This is purely speculation on my part, prompted by a comment from Roxtar on this post the other day. But it provides a neat little story. Here's the set-up:

1. Karl Rove apparently promises the rightwing that an "October Surprise" is in the works prior to the mid-term elections.

2. The French foreign intelligence service leaks information that Osama bin Laden has died of typhoid. The report is allegedly based on Saudi intelligence. The US denies its veracity, and President Jacques Chirac of France expresses surprise at the leak and says the information is unconfirmed. Saudi Arabia says today that they have no evidence of bin Laden's death. The US administration basically presents "no comment" responses. They seemingly want the story to disappear.

And here's the speculation. It assumes a connection between the promised October Surprise and bin Laden's unconfirmed death:

Option 1: Bin Laden is indeed dead of typhoid, and the US administration knew this. In this case, the US could say that they killed bin Laden, and deny any other accounts or speculation on bin Laden's death. The administration attempts to control the entire story in order to win the elections. But the information is shared among secret services and an ensuing behind-the-scenes diplomatic battle takes place. The US wants to control the release of the information. Other countries - such as France - having been screwed over one too many time by the administration's lies, are not about to allow them to use the information for political purposes. They leak the information. The result? Karl Rove has to go fishing for another October Surprise.

Option 2: Bin Laden is not dead. The story of his death from typhoid is false. The more important element in this case, however, is the leak. Suppose the October Surprise would indeed be bin Laden's death, but from the US saying they've found him and have killed him (and they know where he is at present and are waiting for the right moment to maximize politically the impact of killing him). Let's say this is truly the case. What does it do for the October Surprise for the domestic audience? It dilutes the story because there is already a sizeable portion of the American public who believe very little this administration says. They then have a neat excuse for not believing them again, regardless of the truth of the case. See, bin Laden, in their minds, has already died from typhoid.

If we can run with the various speculative hypotheses here, what would this all mean? It would mean that the French have ensured that the US administration's record on terrorism stands for the coming elections: that Bush has not pursued bin Laden, has failed in squelching the Taliban, and has further contributed to the rise of terrorism through the invasion of Iraq, the prosecution of the war in Afghanistan, its support for Israel's war on Lebanon, and its methods of indefinite imprisonment and torture.

Whether dead or alive, whether dead of typhoid, an infected hangnail, or an American bombing, bin Laden's death has just been made much more difficult to turn into an October Surprise.

Thoughts?

UPDATE:

Make sure to check out Glenn Greenwald's piece on the many politically advantageous deaths of bin Laden.