Stupid Numbers

Global Guerillas:

...In classic US fashion (a reflection of the paucity of strategic thinking in our general staff), training to the numbers (quantity) and the early effectiveness of the unit in a fire fight (expediency) was deemed more important than loyalty of the unit to the government. The long term implications were not considered.

The result is that over the last two years the US military has actually created an environment that is conducive to a bloody and chaotic civil war. By partnering with paramilitaries, we accelerated the development of those forces that would take the war to the Sunnis.

What can we do? Nothing but leave. We can neither expect the leadership of US military to develop sound strategies for mitigating the damage done, nor can we reverse drivers of chaos that have been initiated over the last three years. This chaotic system is now running smoothly under the power of its own internal dynamics and continued intervention will only continue to worsen it. Withdrawal is the only option. The faster the better.

Numbers are often stupid, in the sense that relying purely on numbers - which is how much American policy analysis goes - often yields results we may really not want. But the inability to think clearly about what we want, what's right, and how we get there appears to reign. We end up with stupid numbers. Funny, that.

Plus,

"You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math," Rove said. "I'm entitled to 'the' math."