Venezuelan Presidential Election

Venezuelans, as you probably know, are voting for president today. Chávez has led nearly all the respectable pre-election polls (respectable because transparent) by 15 to 25 or so percentage points. An exit poll conducted by Evans/McDonough (see: Presentation of Latest Exit Poll Results - English) shows Chávez with the expected large lead over challenger, Manuel Rosales. The turnout is apparently huge and polling stations are staying open after the scheduled 8pm closing. See, in Venezuela, polling stations don't close until everyone has voted.

It's a good time to consider the basic message of Nikolas Kozloff's piece today in the History News Network:

With the Dec. 3 presidential election in oil-rich Venezuela, the time has come for an overhaul of the Bush administration's catastrophic policy in that South American country. The U.S. channeling of millions of dollars to Venezuelan organizations, many of which are critical of President Hugo Chavez's regime, is hugely destabilizing and will foster great acrimony and distrust between the two nations.

U.S. meddling has stirred up resentment left over from April 2002 when Chavez was briefly overthrown in a coup. Prior to the coup, U.S. policymakers met with the plotters and funneled money to the opposition through the U.S. taxpayer-funded National Endowment for Democracy...

U.S. meddling in the current election smacks of earlier American gunboat diplomacy. In addition to aiding the opposition, U.S. officials have developed ties to individual politicians. The Venezuelan attorney general says Brownfield had a close relationship to Rosales and frequently traveled to Zulia. If Chavez is right and the Bush administration is encouraging secession, this cynical American strategy will most likely anger Chavez's most determined followers in Zulia...

What is most needed now is a less interventionist policy in Venezuela for the long term. The Democrats, having retaken Congress, could not only cut funding to the Venezuelan opposition but also hold hearings concerning the April 2002 coup. Such moves might ameliorate strained relations with Venezuela.

Such a conciliatory policy is sorely needed. Since the presidential term in Venezuela lasts six years, Chavez will be a force to be reckoned with. It is time for liberal Democrats in the House and Senate to stand up to the Bush administration and foreign policy hawks in their own party and restore a sense of rationality in our Venezuela policy.

UPDATE (10:12pm):

Chávez wins. 61% to Rosales' 38% with 78% of the vote counted. The turnout is estimated at 62%.

Let's now see what claims flow from the Venezuelan opposition over the next few days.

Photo: AFP