The Climate Change Magic Show

Starring Dick Cheney as the disappearing assistant....

It's curious that there is any tittering at all about Bush's SOTU speech in which he mentioned the phrase, "climate change." But there is, and that's the reason why.

...said Christine Todd Whitman, Bush's former Environmental Protection Agency administrator. "So the fact that he mentioned climate change in that context, that was a step forward, that was a change."

So, there. He said it. He also had a plan, he said, of reducing gasoline usage in the United States by 20% by the year 2017. But, as usual, and as with typical maneuvering over international treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol, US environmental plans regarding climate change tend towards the rabbit-out-of-a-hat end of the political spectrum.

Bush's plan calls for reducing projected gasoline consumption in the United States by 20 percent over the next 10 years by mandating a dramatic expansion in the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol and raising fuel efficiency standards for automobiles. According to the White House, that would cut annual emissions from cars and light trucks by 10 percent, or 175 million metric tons, equal to taking 26 million cars off the road.

Environmentalists noted that the 20-percent reduction target applies to how much gas is forecast to be used in 2017, not how much is used today. Because of an expected increase in consumption over the next decade, such a cut then actually might only slow the growth of gas use. Moreover, alternative fuels would include liquid made from coal, which emits its own toxic gases. And Bush's plan does not address the source of two-thirds of greenhouse gases, such as power plants and manufacturers.

The Bush plan fell far short of the mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas emissions envisioned by the 1997 Kyoto accord, which Bush renounced in 2001. Days before the State of the Union, there was speculation he might embrace emission caps after James L. Connaughton, head of the White House's Council on Environmental Quality, agreed with such an idea "in concept." But White House spokesman Tony Snow slapped down the idea, and the speech made no mention of it.

But even some on the right, those who know now that climate change is real and anthropogenic, see behind the smoke and mirrors.

"To be perfectly frank, I thought it was an appalling disappointment for everyone, whether you're on the right or the left," said Samuel Thernstrom, a former Bush environmental aide now at the American Enterprise Institute. "We had all been led to expect . . . that we would hear a very substantial initiative from the president." Instead, he said, Bush's plan is "essentially trivial, it's marginal."

Right. Expanding alternative fuels and technology research and implementation is important. But it's difficult to see how this plan - such as it is - boosts research, implementation, and usage. As long as there are record profits to be made in the oil industry off of status quo petroleum usage, the spur towards seeking fuel alternatives is largely going to be the pangs of conscience and heeding these pangs "voluntarily." Or it comes from the political scare-mongering of "reliance on foreign oil," which has nothing to do with reducing consumption, but simply consumption of oil that comes from particular geographic areas. In other words, this is a faith-based environmental plan.

Bush still opposes Kyoto and argues that greater technology will solve the problem. The White House said he has devoted $29 billion to climate science, aid and incentives, and this week he ordered government agencies to buy more hybrid-fuel cars and otherwise curb the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by 2015. "We can get beyond . . . the pre-Kyoto era with a post-Kyoto strategy, the center of which is new technologies," he said on a visit to a DuPont facility in Delaware the day after the State of the Union.

Former EPA chief Whitman said that for the first time Bush may be willing to sign carbon emission caps into law. "He's kind of setting up for a carbon-constrained economy," she said. "I don't know whether there will ever be an administration bill, but it may be that he's setting himself up not to veto [someone else's] bill."

Kyoto is not necessarily the answer. It doesn't do much, even if the US had ratified. Even if China, India, and Brazil were on board. Technological shifts are most definitely a major part of any attack on climate change. There is some promise there from the Bush administration. But as the Whitman quote indicates, this is all going to require leadership from somewhere other than the Oval Office. This is a hopeless president. If the Democrats were to come up with a bill that actually goes some distance towards mitigating climate change, Bush may be more sensitive to a non-veto, but it would never come on a bill containing real solutions. At this point, if mitigation is measured in real terms that correspond to the problem rather than to political and ideological considerations and personal preferences, those solutions would necessarily be radical.

Still think this isn't all smoke and mirrors? How about some literal smoke and mirrors...

The US government wants the world's scientists to develop technology to block sunlight as a last-ditch way to halt global warming, the Guardian has learned. It says research into techniques such as giant mirrors in space or reflective dust pumped into the atmosphere would be "important insurance" against rising emissions, and has lobbied for such a strategy to be recommended by a major UN report on climate change, the first part of which will be published on Friday.

The US has also attempted to steer the UN report, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), away from conclusions that would support a new worldwide climate treaty based on binding targets to reduce emissions - as sought by Tony Blair. It has demanded a draft of the report be changed to emphasise the benefits of voluntary agreements and to include criticisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the existing treaty which the US administration opposes...

The US response, a copy of which has been obtained by the Guardian, says the idea of interfering with sunlight should be included in the summary for policymakers, the prominent chapter at the front of each IPCC report. It says: "Modifying solar radiance may be an important strategy if mitigation of emissions fails. Doing the R&D to estimate the consequences of applying such a strategy is important insurance that should be taken out. This is a very important possibility that should be considered."