Slippery Slope

There is, of course, a distinct possibility that the presence of up to 20,000 of the best-trained soldiers on the planet will lead to a short-term lull in the insurgency. If so, what will it really mean? Will it mean the insurgents gave up? Will they take their fight elsewhere in Iraq? Or will they merely be waiting out the surge?

There is an equally strong possibility that a concentration of our troops in Baghdad will make them targets for engagement and the casualty rate will rise. What will Bush do then: Send more troops?

In preparing to authorize the surge, Bush is defying two mantras that have guided him throughout this war of choice. One is that he heeds the judgment of the generals in the field. Both Gen. John Abizaid, the top U.S. commander of the Middle East, and Gen. George Casey, the chief commander in Iraq, have expressed their clear skepticism about a troop increase. Now each is being rotated out, quite conveniently for the White House policy. But their admonitions echo loudly.

Moreover, Bush repeatedly proclaims his deep respect and concern for the troops who are serving this country in the treacherous terrain of Iraq. But, remember, much of this "surge" will come by extending the tours of duty of combat brigades in Iraq. The strain on already overextended forces will further diminish the ability of our military to respond to crises elsewhere -- and the exploitation of the dedication of these young men and women will only complicate future recruitment.