Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Returns

If you're wondering, The Concord Monitor is the place to follow New Hampshire primary returns. As of 8:15pm, with 12% of precincts reporting, the rundown looks like this (taking only the top five candidates):

Hillary Clinton - 38%
Barack Obama - 36%
John Edwards - 17%
Bill Richardson - 4%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%

John McCain - 37%
Mitt Romney - 28%
Mike Huckabee - 12%
Rudy Giuliani - 9%
Ron Paul - 8%

UPDATE (8:54pm EST):
Looks to me like we have a surprise brewing. The primary has been called for McCain on the Republican side. Hillary Clinton is right now up 6 points over Obama. Could all the idiotic, sexist, fatalistic media and political commentary about Hillary over the past week have had a counter-effect?

UPDATE (9:12):
Now, with 34% reporting, Hillary leads Obama 40%-36%. Regardless of how the final tally turns out, it's a good day for Hillary. Rumors had been flying not only about the standard "shakeup" of campaign staff, but about a sinking ship bailing water until February 5th. Not quite....

UPDATE (9:34):
Sullivan (it's a Sullivan day):
There's one other possible explanation for the apparent Clinton revival in the last few days. Maybe Democrats decided that a sudden blowout for Obama wasn't good for their party. Maybe they wanted to see Obama fight some more, to keep the contest more competitive, to give their candidates more testing for the fall. Maybe they just wanted to say: "Wait. A tidal wave is no way to select a candidate. We need to see both of them fight on under the kind of pressure they will face in the fall."
UPDATE (9:39):
Taegan Goddard:
Were today's stories about an impending shake up in the Clinton campaign planted to lay the groundwork for a Clinton comeback story? If so, it was an absolutely brilliant move.
I doubt it. With the numbers she was getting last week, a shake up looked in order, period. Standard protocol for campaigns. But... it may have contributed to the sense of urgency among those sitting on the fence between Democratic candidates. I think Sullivan (above) is right.

UPDATE (9:49pm):
At 50% precincts reporting, Hillary leads Obama 39%-36%. She has won the "big" cities. Obama is apparently easily capturing more rural areas.

The CNN site also has quick updates. 54% reporting, 39%-37%.

Update (10:30pm):
65% reporting: 39%-36%. Hillary's up by roughly 5000 votes.

You've got to love this. McCain pulled off a great win today after having dragged around a tired and seemingly pointless campaign much of the year. Gazillionaire Mitt Romney can't seem to buy a win (okay, Wyoming), or as he puts it, a "gold medal." Sheesh. Giuliani is waiting on Florida, but is basically running a moribund campaign at this point. Huckabee is going to be around a while. It's basically a McCain and Huckabee race.

For the Democrats, Edwards can stick around yet. And as for Obama and Clinton we have a serious race. This is a lot more fun than a clear front-runner. I'm a tad cynical about how American-style democracy has worked these past many years, and it's unlikely we'll see much of a change. But the opportunity is there for the taking to have an intelligent public debate about our candidates. Obama and McCain can push this debate into the open if they wish, and perhaps even go some distance towards restoring a bit of faith in American democracy before we ever get to the general election.

UPDATE (10:39):
Clinton wins it, according to AP.

With 71% of precincts reporting, Phronesisaical's crack team of statisticians calls it for Hillary Clinton.


Anonymous said...

I'm an Obama supporter--- one of many who would (God help me) vote for a Republican before I'd vote for Queen Clinton. So, my fellow Democrats, a vote for Clinton is, to an important extent, a vote for Fred Thompson. That might sound crazy, but wait and see.

MT said...

With 71% of precincts reporting, Phronesisaical's crack team of statisticians calls it for Hillary Clinton.

Well, we know you're a liberal extremist now, if you're employing people on crack.

helmut said...

It's a whole team on crack. It's amazing how they maintain unity.