I caught the orange cat that comes around regularly eating the ground beef and cat food I had put out for the roadrunner, which proves that an open hand will always be slapped down, as Richard Perle observes.
Back in a horrendously real world, a Ukrainian archbishop who saved Jews will probably never be canonized because he dispatched chaplains to a Waffen-SS unit. The western lack of understanding of the vice that eastern Europe was caught in during World War II continues; when your choice is between rulers who will kill and exile your people and those who merely want to enslave them, you might do something like this.
My roadrunner, with her long legs and low flying habits, seems closer to the dinosaurs than many birds. Here's a very strange ancestor.
A view of the neocons as living in a pre-globalized world from Thomas P. M. Barnett.
I'm wondering when Jane Hamsher will announce her alliance with Peter Wehner.
Why the Health Care Bill Will Destroy the Conservative Movement.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
Just Sayin'
When I read this quote from Glenn Beck
And they were more succinct.
[T]hey cannot move on these things, because they are building a machine that will crush the entrepreneurial sprit and the freedom that our founding fathers designed. This machine, whatever it is they are building, will crush it. Do not let them build another piece. So while I turn away, I want to make sure that I have at least 10 million eyes watching -- watching every single move they're making.I recalled the slogan of the Symbionese Liberation Army, the folks who kidnapped Patty Hearst.
Death to the fascist insect that preys on the life of the people.The difference is that the Symbionese Liberation Army didn't have a television show.
And they were more succinct.
Bits and Pieces - December 21, 2009
Today is the solstice. It's officially the start of winter, but in my calculation we've had one wintry month already, with two to go, and now the days start getting longer. Reason enough for celebration!
James Traub had a summary of President Obama's foreign policy so far in yesterday's New York Times Week in Review. I thought about blogging it, but found it fairly lackluster. I've been feeling a bit beat down too by all the hollering about Obama's not having solved all the world's problems yet and no ponies either, and I'm not happy with my Obama post over the weekend. So here's David Shorr, doing a better job than either Traub or I did.
Jacob Hacker, who developed the idea of the public option, thinks that the health care reform bill should be passed. And here's Ezra Klein's response to Jane Hamsher.
Airlines will now be limited to three hours confinement of passengers on the ground when things go wrong.
An integrated school in Jerusalem.
Uh-oh. Looks like this is likely to be the next big uproar among the climate denialists.
James Traub had a summary of President Obama's foreign policy so far in yesterday's New York Times Week in Review. I thought about blogging it, but found it fairly lackluster. I've been feeling a bit beat down too by all the hollering about Obama's not having solved all the world's problems yet and no ponies either, and I'm not happy with my Obama post over the weekend. So here's David Shorr, doing a better job than either Traub or I did.
Jacob Hacker, who developed the idea of the public option, thinks that the health care reform bill should be passed. And here's Ezra Klein's response to Jane Hamsher.
Airlines will now be limited to three hours confinement of passengers on the ground when things go wrong.
An integrated school in Jerusalem.
Uh-oh. Looks like this is likely to be the next big uproar among the climate denialists.
Some Black and White Photography
The New York Times presents a slide show of Cristian Movila's photographs of Romania.
From the other side of the country, Women and War.
Both are fairly dark material. If you're having a bad Monday, don't click.
From the other side of the country, Women and War.
Both are fairly dark material. If you're having a bad Monday, don't click.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
President Obama Fails To Reduce Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Since Climate Summit!
The lefty naysayers on health-care reform seem to have quieted down a bit, perhaps in contemplation of Sarah Palin's triumphal tweet or perhaps placated by the extra 10% John Boehner will have to pay to maintain his complexion.
But we have another chorus of upset that President Obama isn't behaving sufficiently like a superhero. Neil Gabler would like to see more passion. Steve Clemons would like to see more fight. Or we could kvetch about deadlines.
But we had passion and fight in the Bush administration. And, for all Steve's concern about women's health issues, isn't fighting a male trope?
I continue to believe that Obama is working s a community organizer: get the people working together. A "strong" leader, one who anathematizes the opposition, who fights for the right, who is passionate about his policies, seems to me to be the opposite of what we need now. Quiet persistence is more like it, and that is what we're seeing from Obama.
Health care reform is the biggest social change since the Great Society reforms of the 1960s. And it's going to pass, battered, bruised, imperfect, but it's going to pass. We've been fixing up those Great Society reforms, and we'll continue to fix health care.
Obama also seems to have changed the conversation in Copenhagen. Andrew Light sees his last-minute negotiation as moving from developed countries versus underdeveloped countries to the big carbon emitters versus everyone else. Additionally, there is an agreement with China on measurement, reporting, and verification.
Neither of these results is everything we might have wanted. But change is not easy. If you believe, as I do, that it must start at the margins, then these two achievements are much more than might have been expected.
Here's an indicator: Evan Bayh, not the most lefty of Democrats, said that
We have had thirty years in the United States of a conversation slanted toward anti-science, unrestricted markets, and individual greed. It will take time to turn that around. But we're seeing the first signs of change.
But we have another chorus of upset that President Obama isn't behaving sufficiently like a superhero. Neil Gabler would like to see more passion. Steve Clemons would like to see more fight. Or we could kvetch about deadlines.
But we had passion and fight in the Bush administration. And, for all Steve's concern about women's health issues, isn't fighting a male trope?
I continue to believe that Obama is working s a community organizer: get the people working together. A "strong" leader, one who anathematizes the opposition, who fights for the right, who is passionate about his policies, seems to me to be the opposite of what we need now. Quiet persistence is more like it, and that is what we're seeing from Obama.
Health care reform is the biggest social change since the Great Society reforms of the 1960s. And it's going to pass, battered, bruised, imperfect, but it's going to pass. We've been fixing up those Great Society reforms, and we'll continue to fix health care.
Obama also seems to have changed the conversation in Copenhagen. Andrew Light sees his last-minute negotiation as moving from developed countries versus underdeveloped countries to the big carbon emitters versus everyone else. Additionally, there is an agreement with China on measurement, reporting, and verification.
Neither of these results is everything we might have wanted. But change is not easy. If you believe, as I do, that it must start at the margins, then these two achievements are much more than might have been expected.
Here's an indicator: Evan Bayh, not the most lefty of Democrats, said that
the health care measure was the kind of public policy he had come to Washington to work on, according to officials who attended the session, and that he did not want to see the satisfied looks on the faces of Republican leaders if they succeeded in blocking the measure.That's another good point: this is what Congress is supposed to do. If we can convince Congress of that, we might see less of the grandstanding, pork, and other malfunctions of our legislature.
We have had thirty years in the United States of a conversation slanted toward anti-science, unrestricted markets, and individual greed. It will take time to turn that around. But we're seeing the first signs of change.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Bits and Pieces - Saturday Science Edition
A baby coelacanth was captured on video for probably the first time. Coelacanths are felt to be a link between fish and the first fishy organism that crawled out of the water.
Become a Facebook fan of your favorite chemical elements. Periodic chart with links here.
The West Bank and East Jerusalem Searchable Map includes lists of archaeological sites that have been surveyed or excavated since Israel occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1967. Palestinians and Israelis are working together on this project.
Clorox says it will no longer make bleach by reacting chlorine gas with sodium hydroxide. This will eliminate transport of chlorine gas by rail and truck for Clorox. But they plan to buy concentrated bleach and dilute it for consumer sale. They don't say who will be making that concentrated bleach, presumably by reacting chlorine gas with sodium hydroxide, or where it will be made.
The American Chemical Society and American Institute of Chemical Engineers say that we need a transparent, comprehensive analysis framework (pdf) for proposed energy solutions and give some of the characteristics such a framework should have. I have been griping about this for some time. Everyone does their own analysis, which never quite can be compared with any other.
Seven hundred of those squooshy maps that show graphically the relative sizes of, well, seven hundred variables. Also some animations to show how things have changed over time.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Friday Hope Blogging
I see that Phila hasn't posted his Friday Hope Blogging yet, so I'll put up this one little piece of hope. Actually, I think it's a pretty big one.
Nearing New Arms Pact, U.S. and Russia Look Beyond It
That headline alone is big. There must be a lot of agreement and positive anticipation if both countries are looking beyond the not-yet-finished START agreement. And they expect that it will be completed sometime soon.
If this is agreed, it will be a good foundation for more to come. I'll take it as a Christmas/solstice present.
And, oh yeah, the roadrunner is back, demanding and eating food.
Nearing New Arms Pact, U.S. and Russia Look Beyond It
That headline alone is big. There must be a lot of agreement and positive anticipation if both countries are looking beyond the not-yet-finished START agreement. And they expect that it will be completed sometime soon.
The new version of Start would require each side to reduce deployed strategic nuclear warheads to roughly 1,600, down from 2,200, according to a senior American official. It would also force each side to reduce its strategic bombers and land- and sea-based missiles to below 800, down from the old limit of 1,600.No wonder it's been taking some time. This is big - many of us thought that further decreasing numbers was too much to take on and the treaty should just be extended, with numbers discussed later. But this was Obama's goal for START renewal.
If this is agreed, it will be a good foundation for more to come. I'll take it as a Christmas/solstice present.
And, oh yeah, the roadrunner is back, demanding and eating food.
Iran: Where We Are
I’ve wanted to do a couple of big thoughtful posts (in contrast to my recent insta-responses) but haven’t had quiet time to work them up. But, in the insta-response mode, there have been a couple of developments today that make me think I should write this one up.
Sean Paul comes up with a bit of what I’ve been thinking on Iran, but I’ll take off in my own direction. I’m also going to try to avoid the set-piece arguments about Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has a long history of which it is proud, during part of which it dominated its region. For the past century or so, it has been dominated by others, frequently in a very humiliating manner. The United States did it the favor of eliminating its most immediate enemy in the region, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The next competitor is Israel, which has a nuclear arsenal of probably 200 weapons and the means to deliver them.
George Bush put Iran on his short list of enemies, along with Iraq and North Korea. North Korea had plutonium and Iraq didn’t.
Iran has had a nuclear program since the United States helped to start it under the Shah. It is very hard for me to believe that there have been no proponents of an Iranian nuclear weapon during that time; for some scientists, this is the ultimate challenge, and the contrast in treatment of the other two members of the “Axis of Evil” made clear yet one more attraction of a nuclear weapons program, if not a full-up arsenal.
In any case, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows its non nuclear weapon signatories access to the full nuclear fuel cycle for civilian purposes. The full nuclear fuel cycle also allows the production of nuclear weapons if the IAEA inspectors are removed.
The technological challenges and perhaps the trade potential of a full nuclear fuel cycle also would be attractive to any Iranian government. European nations have reneged on Iran in nuclear matters several times, and Russia has been suspiciously slow in finishing the Bushehr reactor that the Germans started.
Iran’s internal governance has been difficult, partly because of the complex decision-making structure of its government and partly because the revolution introduced a number of stressors, including limitations in human rights and ever-present revolutionary questions of who are its proper heirs. Difficulties in external relations and trade have also stressed the government.
Pride in technological achievements of the nuclear and missile programs is one way to bring the people together; additionally, these achievements can be felt to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Iran is dangerous to mess with. While that demonstration may be comforting to some in Iran, it can also convince others that something needs to be done about Iran. There is a slender line to be walked here.
Iran’s nuclear program keeps offering surprises to the rest of the world: some genuine and some perhaps not. Surprises do not build confidence; they tear it down. The latest surprise was a large quantity of heavy water that the IAEA inspectors found at the Arak nuclear plant; before that it was the Fordow enrichment facility, near Qom. And there were others. Some came from documents that may or may not be authentic; in several cases, the holders of those documents are unwilling to make them available for authentication, so we don’t know.
The timing of the release of some of those documents is also suspicious. Iran takes a small step toward negotiating, and a new document shows up. The most recent one apparently has been around for a year or more, but it just happened to leak right after Iran made a proposal on exchanging some of its low-enriched uranium for fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor.
Once, I had a professor working for me on a contract on which he was not delivering. I called him on the phone to talk about it; the conversation was interrupted, he said, by someone coming into his office. When I called the next week, oddly enough, before we could get to substance, someone came into his office again, interrupting the call. The timing of these document leaks is like that.
Are all these documents forgeries? Probably not. It’s not impossible that Iran has done some experiments, or thought about doing some experiments, on problems related to building nuclear weapons. From what I’ve seen of scientists, highly likely. My conclusion is that the evidence that has surfaced so far indicates only that some people have tried to check out some things, far short of a full-up nuclear weapons program.
But Iran has an obligation to report and explain those experiments to the IAEA, and it hasn’t been willing to. Whatever the reasons for Iran’s reticence, the impression that it gives is that Iran wants to hide something. And there are those who will put the worst interpretation on that.
Further, Iran’s inclination to respond to unfavorable developments with bluster, like its missile test this week or its declaration that it will build ten enrichment facilities, comes across more as weakness than strength, but a dangerous weakness.
The societal unrest and accompanying disagreements within the Iranian government further complicate the situation and most likely explain the on-again, off-again nature of Iran’s response in the nuclear negotiations and the resignations of negotiators. Ray Takeyh provides one more possible narrative of what is behind that back-and-forth.
Roger Cohen counsels the Obama administration to do nothing for a while. I think the administration has largely been doing that, with the occasional fierce word on sanctions to remind Iran that there are outstanding issues. The conference on sanctions was called off. Cohen points out that part of what the George H. W. Bush administration did right on the Soviet breakup in the early nineties was what it didn’t do. The George W. Bush administration, of course, poisoned the waters with Iran by publicly saying it would try to undermine the regime; the Obama administration has to live with the aftereffects.
Cohen argues that the Iranian regime is now destabilized and likely to fall under its own contradiction. Sanctions would indeed give the Iranian government a rallying point. The opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi is becoming more outspoken.
Iran would like to be the regional hegemon and sees its nuclear program, whether civilian or military, as part of that. Its internal disarray is an enormous barrier to that ambition. Its competitor, Israel, has been relatively subdued the last week or two. Has the United States told Israel to damp down the rhetoric?
Incorporating Iran into the region as a major player but not dominant is key to stabilizing the situation. Unfortunately, that can’t happen until Iran’s internal situation stabilizes. Or might it be possible to devise regional talks that would give Iran’s leaders a way to get some of what they want and motivate them toward an internal solution that would improve human rights?
Sean Paul comes up with a bit of what I’ve been thinking on Iran, but I’ll take off in my own direction. I’m also going to try to avoid the set-piece arguments about Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has a long history of which it is proud, during part of which it dominated its region. For the past century or so, it has been dominated by others, frequently in a very humiliating manner. The United States did it the favor of eliminating its most immediate enemy in the region, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The next competitor is Israel, which has a nuclear arsenal of probably 200 weapons and the means to deliver them.
George Bush put Iran on his short list of enemies, along with Iraq and North Korea. North Korea had plutonium and Iraq didn’t.
Iran has had a nuclear program since the United States helped to start it under the Shah. It is very hard for me to believe that there have been no proponents of an Iranian nuclear weapon during that time; for some scientists, this is the ultimate challenge, and the contrast in treatment of the other two members of the “Axis of Evil” made clear yet one more attraction of a nuclear weapons program, if not a full-up arsenal.
In any case, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows its non nuclear weapon signatories access to the full nuclear fuel cycle for civilian purposes. The full nuclear fuel cycle also allows the production of nuclear weapons if the IAEA inspectors are removed.
The technological challenges and perhaps the trade potential of a full nuclear fuel cycle also would be attractive to any Iranian government. European nations have reneged on Iran in nuclear matters several times, and Russia has been suspiciously slow in finishing the Bushehr reactor that the Germans started.
Iran’s internal governance has been difficult, partly because of the complex decision-making structure of its government and partly because the revolution introduced a number of stressors, including limitations in human rights and ever-present revolutionary questions of who are its proper heirs. Difficulties in external relations and trade have also stressed the government.
Pride in technological achievements of the nuclear and missile programs is one way to bring the people together; additionally, these achievements can be felt to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Iran is dangerous to mess with. While that demonstration may be comforting to some in Iran, it can also convince others that something needs to be done about Iran. There is a slender line to be walked here.
Iran’s nuclear program keeps offering surprises to the rest of the world: some genuine and some perhaps not. Surprises do not build confidence; they tear it down. The latest surprise was a large quantity of heavy water that the IAEA inspectors found at the Arak nuclear plant; before that it was the Fordow enrichment facility, near Qom. And there were others. Some came from documents that may or may not be authentic; in several cases, the holders of those documents are unwilling to make them available for authentication, so we don’t know.
The timing of the release of some of those documents is also suspicious. Iran takes a small step toward negotiating, and a new document shows up. The most recent one apparently has been around for a year or more, but it just happened to leak right after Iran made a proposal on exchanging some of its low-enriched uranium for fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor.
Once, I had a professor working for me on a contract on which he was not delivering. I called him on the phone to talk about it; the conversation was interrupted, he said, by someone coming into his office. When I called the next week, oddly enough, before we could get to substance, someone came into his office again, interrupting the call. The timing of these document leaks is like that.
Are all these documents forgeries? Probably not. It’s not impossible that Iran has done some experiments, or thought about doing some experiments, on problems related to building nuclear weapons. From what I’ve seen of scientists, highly likely. My conclusion is that the evidence that has surfaced so far indicates only that some people have tried to check out some things, far short of a full-up nuclear weapons program.
But Iran has an obligation to report and explain those experiments to the IAEA, and it hasn’t been willing to. Whatever the reasons for Iran’s reticence, the impression that it gives is that Iran wants to hide something. And there are those who will put the worst interpretation on that.
Further, Iran’s inclination to respond to unfavorable developments with bluster, like its missile test this week or its declaration that it will build ten enrichment facilities, comes across more as weakness than strength, but a dangerous weakness.
The societal unrest and accompanying disagreements within the Iranian government further complicate the situation and most likely explain the on-again, off-again nature of Iran’s response in the nuclear negotiations and the resignations of negotiators. Ray Takeyh provides one more possible narrative of what is behind that back-and-forth.
Roger Cohen counsels the Obama administration to do nothing for a while. I think the administration has largely been doing that, with the occasional fierce word on sanctions to remind Iran that there are outstanding issues. The conference on sanctions was called off. Cohen points out that part of what the George H. W. Bush administration did right on the Soviet breakup in the early nineties was what it didn’t do. The George W. Bush administration, of course, poisoned the waters with Iran by publicly saying it would try to undermine the regime; the Obama administration has to live with the aftereffects.
Cohen argues that the Iranian regime is now destabilized and likely to fall under its own contradiction. Sanctions would indeed give the Iranian government a rallying point. The opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi is becoming more outspoken.
Iran would like to be the regional hegemon and sees its nuclear program, whether civilian or military, as part of that. Its internal disarray is an enormous barrier to that ambition. Its competitor, Israel, has been relatively subdued the last week or two. Has the United States told Israel to damp down the rhetoric?
Incorporating Iran into the region as a major player but not dominant is key to stabilizing the situation. Unfortunately, that can’t happen until Iran’s internal situation stabilizes. Or might it be possible to devise regional talks that would give Iran’s leaders a way to get some of what they want and motivate them toward an internal solution that would improve human rights?
Just Wondering
if the Democrats who are urging that the health reform bill be defeated have thought about the celebrations their Tea Party allies will have if the bill is defeated. The news articles that will declare this the end of Obama's "hope." How Sarah Palin will be energized.
President Obama Live Blog from COP15 Copenhagen
In a few moments, I'll live-blog Pres. Obama's talk at the COP15 climate change meetings in Copenhagen. I'm still here in Copenhagen. Little sleep over the past week, following events inside and outside of the Bella Center, the conference venue. I'm here as a delegate from a thinktank, doing some work for a second thinktank.
Late night agreement among world leaders staying up late at the Bella Center. The agreement doesn't break new ground from what I've seen thus far. Significant financial commitment for the adaptation/mitigation financing of developing countries' efforts. Will also commit to 2 degrees Celsius warming limit, the mean temperature target over which, it is predicted by various scientific assessments including those of the IPCC, the world risks dangerous climate change. A 2-degree increase already entails significant effects of climate change. Developing countries, with Tuvalu's and the Maldives' passionate pleas, prefer 1.5 degree Celsius limit. That's not going to be the agreement. 2 degrees means a likely 85% in global emissions reductions by 2050.
All conference long, we've awaited this final day of the conference and particularly the appearance of Pres. Obama. Everyone. Remember the lofty hopes for Obama just before the elections one year ago? Some similar sentiments internationally at the Bella Center this week.
Pres. Obama is not expected to offer anything more than what's already on the table, including the US commitment announced yesterday by Sec. of State Hillary Clinton to help build a $100 billion per year adaptation fund for developing countries by 2020. The agreement hammered out last night with lead taken by French president Sarkozy, Brazilian president Lula, Gordon Brown of the UK, added developed nation commitment to $50 billion fund by 2015. Short-term, the fund will be $10 billion over the next three years. Likely more since Japan's announcement two days ago of substantial funding. EU will add $3.6 billion. US will commit its "fair share." $1 billion already committed by US to REDD, the program that will be included in the post-Kyoto UNFCCC climate change agreement, to eliminate deforestation. This latter program is perhaps the biggest achievement of the Copenhagen meetings, thus far.
For its part, China last night agreed to further international transparency measures regarding carbon emissions reductions measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) within China, one of the main demands on China coming from the US, EU, and other countries. This will occur likely through national reporting program already in place under the Kyoto Protocol. But there are different requirements in KP made of developed (Annex I) and developing countries on reporting. Very loose under KP for developing countries; much more exact for Annex I countries. China will likely move to latter category, thus assuring world of accurate emissions reductions reporting while allaying Chinese concerns regarding state sovereignty.
So... live-blog coming up in a moment. Stay tuned to this post....
11:43am (Copenhagen time): Obama has been in meeting room with other leaders negotiating. Now, delegates in giant plenary room asked to take their seats. Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen takes seat at front.
11:48: French president Nicola Sarkozy apparently stormed out of backstage meeting room where late negotiations unfold with Obama and a dozen other leaders, Sarkozy saying that the countries were not cooperating.
11:52: Waiting on Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.
11:57: Ban Ki Moon arrived. PM Rasmussen speaking right now.
11:58: Follow video feed here. If bogged down (likely), try Danish TV here.
12:01pm (Copenhagen time): Sec. General BKM gives welcoming remarks.
12:04: BKM: Decision on climate change for common good for all time.
12:05: PM Wen Jiabao of China takes podium to speak.
12:08: China PM listing all recent enviro achievements of the country.
12:09: Wen repeats carbon intensity reduction targets already agreed (I believe 42-45% decrease in intensity).
12:14: Boiler plate from Wen. Takes seat. Lula of Brazil now taking the floor.
12:15: Back-room meeting participants listed here.
12:17: Lula expresses frustration with process. Brazil has done a lot already, while science shows us worse CC problem. Brazil has had to make very difficult efforts as developing country. Spends $16 billion per year on CC efforts. Brazil has demonstrated its determination. Now discussing meeting last night with heads of state. Meeting was necessary because negotiations, preparations haven't done a lot until now.
12:21: Lula smackdown on developed countries.
12:22: Lula: we all agree on 2-degree warming limit.
12:24: Lula: for developed world three meals a day is thing of the past. For Africa, many developing countries, this would be a huge achievement.
12:27: Brazil willing to contribute to financing even as developing nations. Not acceptable, though, to have agreement document just for sake of signing a document. But if we don't have it by now, doubtful that "angel" will arrive to help. But "I believe in miracles."
12:31: Lula: can't do anything without addressing poverty, preserving the main species of this world, "its men, women, and children."
12:32: Here comes Obama.
12:33: Obama: CC not fiction. Unchecked poses risks to security, economy, and planet. Question is not nature of challenge, but capacity to meet it. "Our ability to take action is in doubt right now."
12:34: Here today "not to talk but to act."
12:36: "we are convinced that changing the way we use energy is essential to America’s national security, because it will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and help us deal with some of the dangers posed by climate change."
12:37: Obama repeating US emissions reductions targets of 17% reduction by 2020 (from 2005 baseline).
12:40: "Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a clear formula – one that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord – one that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international community."
12:41 "We know the fault lines because we’ve been imprisoned by them for years."
12:42: Obama: can choose something now or "choose delay." No time to waste, Obama says. He's trying some cheerleading. Time is now, etc. Finishes.
12:45: Prime Minister of Lesotho expressing deep disappointment from perspective of developing nations that nothing legally binding coming out of COP15.
12:49: Thanking Pres. Obama for leading his "great country" to turn around and join the world in dealing with climate change.
No new commitments from Obama. US emissions reduction commitment is ridiculously low and one of the central points of dispute. This just isn't enough. China's not giving enough either, of course. But COP15 ends with US not budging at all on its emissions reductions targets.
This meeting was always going to be about a political agreement, not a legally binding agreement, which would come at COP16 in Mexico City right now planned for November next year. But the political agreement is apparently what we've already known since at least yesterday.
There is indeed a political agreement but it's pretty mild. Available here - leaked version, supposedly, but beware that this is not official.
I need more time to assess and will sign off for now. But first impression, despite knowing this would only be a political agreement, is that the outcome of COP15 is a huge disappointment. The culprits are clearly China and the US. Shame.
But... it's still going to be a long day of negotiations....
Update: Official transcript of Obama's remarks here.
Late night agreement among world leaders staying up late at the Bella Center. The agreement doesn't break new ground from what I've seen thus far. Significant financial commitment for the adaptation/mitigation financing of developing countries' efforts. Will also commit to 2 degrees Celsius warming limit, the mean temperature target over which, it is predicted by various scientific assessments including those of the IPCC, the world risks dangerous climate change. A 2-degree increase already entails significant effects of climate change. Developing countries, with Tuvalu's and the Maldives' passionate pleas, prefer 1.5 degree Celsius limit. That's not going to be the agreement. 2 degrees means a likely 85% in global emissions reductions by 2050.
All conference long, we've awaited this final day of the conference and particularly the appearance of Pres. Obama. Everyone. Remember the lofty hopes for Obama just before the elections one year ago? Some similar sentiments internationally at the Bella Center this week.
Pres. Obama is not expected to offer anything more than what's already on the table, including the US commitment announced yesterday by Sec. of State Hillary Clinton to help build a $100 billion per year adaptation fund for developing countries by 2020. The agreement hammered out last night with lead taken by French president Sarkozy, Brazilian president Lula, Gordon Brown of the UK, added developed nation commitment to $50 billion fund by 2015. Short-term, the fund will be $10 billion over the next three years. Likely more since Japan's announcement two days ago of substantial funding. EU will add $3.6 billion. US will commit its "fair share." $1 billion already committed by US to REDD, the program that will be included in the post-Kyoto UNFCCC climate change agreement, to eliminate deforestation. This latter program is perhaps the biggest achievement of the Copenhagen meetings, thus far.
For its part, China last night agreed to further international transparency measures regarding carbon emissions reductions measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) within China, one of the main demands on China coming from the US, EU, and other countries. This will occur likely through national reporting program already in place under the Kyoto Protocol. But there are different requirements in KP made of developed (Annex I) and developing countries on reporting. Very loose under KP for developing countries; much more exact for Annex I countries. China will likely move to latter category, thus assuring world of accurate emissions reductions reporting while allaying Chinese concerns regarding state sovereignty.
So... live-blog coming up in a moment. Stay tuned to this post....
11:43am (Copenhagen time): Obama has been in meeting room with other leaders negotiating. Now, delegates in giant plenary room asked to take their seats. Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen takes seat at front.
11:48: French president Nicola Sarkozy apparently stormed out of backstage meeting room where late negotiations unfold with Obama and a dozen other leaders, Sarkozy saying that the countries were not cooperating.
11:52: Waiting on Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.
11:57: Ban Ki Moon arrived. PM Rasmussen speaking right now.
11:58: Follow video feed here. If bogged down (likely), try Danish TV here.
12:01pm (Copenhagen time): Sec. General BKM gives welcoming remarks.
12:04: BKM: Decision on climate change for common good for all time.
12:05: PM Wen Jiabao of China takes podium to speak.
12:08: China PM listing all recent enviro achievements of the country.
12:09: Wen repeats carbon intensity reduction targets already agreed (I believe 42-45% decrease in intensity).
12:14: Boiler plate from Wen. Takes seat. Lula of Brazil now taking the floor.
12:15: Back-room meeting participants listed here.
12:17: Lula expresses frustration with process. Brazil has done a lot already, while science shows us worse CC problem. Brazil has had to make very difficult efforts as developing country. Spends $16 billion per year on CC efforts. Brazil has demonstrated its determination. Now discussing meeting last night with heads of state. Meeting was necessary because negotiations, preparations haven't done a lot until now.
12:21: Lula smackdown on developed countries.
12:22: Lula: we all agree on 2-degree warming limit.
12:24: Lula: for developed world three meals a day is thing of the past. For Africa, many developing countries, this would be a huge achievement.
12:27: Brazil willing to contribute to financing even as developing nations. Not acceptable, though, to have agreement document just for sake of signing a document. But if we don't have it by now, doubtful that "angel" will arrive to help. But "I believe in miracles."
12:31: Lula: can't do anything without addressing poverty, preserving the main species of this world, "its men, women, and children."
12:32: Here comes Obama.
12:33: Obama: CC not fiction. Unchecked poses risks to security, economy, and planet. Question is not nature of challenge, but capacity to meet it. "Our ability to take action is in doubt right now."
12:34: Here today "not to talk but to act."
12:36: "we are convinced that changing the way we use energy is essential to America’s national security, because it will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and help us deal with some of the dangers posed by climate change."
12:37: Obama repeating US emissions reductions targets of 17% reduction by 2020 (from 2005 baseline).
12:40: "Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a clear formula – one that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord – one that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international community."
12:41 "We know the fault lines because we’ve been imprisoned by them for years."
12:42: Obama: can choose something now or "choose delay." No time to waste, Obama says. He's trying some cheerleading. Time is now, etc. Finishes.
12:45: Prime Minister of Lesotho expressing deep disappointment from perspective of developing nations that nothing legally binding coming out of COP15.
12:49: Thanking Pres. Obama for leading his "great country" to turn around and join the world in dealing with climate change.
No new commitments from Obama. US emissions reduction commitment is ridiculously low and one of the central points of dispute. This just isn't enough. China's not giving enough either, of course. But COP15 ends with US not budging at all on its emissions reductions targets.
This meeting was always going to be about a political agreement, not a legally binding agreement, which would come at COP16 in Mexico City right now planned for November next year. But the political agreement is apparently what we've already known since at least yesterday.
There is indeed a political agreement but it's pretty mild. Available here - leaked version, supposedly, but beware that this is not official.
I need more time to assess and will sign off for now. But first impression, despite knowing this would only be a political agreement, is that the outcome of COP15 is a huge disappointment. The culprits are clearly China and the US. Shame.
But... it's still going to be a long day of negotiations....
Update: Official transcript of Obama's remarks here.
Rainforest Seeds
Photo: HelmutLiveblogging President Obama's speech at COP15 Copenhagen as soon as it begins - probably about ten minutes. Thought rainforest seeds appropriate.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
President Obama Comes to “Hopenhagen”
For the past two weeks, at every juncture when the failure of COP15 has seemed inevitable, thousands of silent pleas have floated above Copenhagen hoping for the presence of one man on Friday to save the proceedings. President Obama arrives tomorrow in Copenhagen with hopes at COP15 raised beyond any likely outcomes of the president’s trip.
As U.S. delegation leader Todd Stern said yesterday “Our commitment is tied to our anticipated legislation. We don't want to promise something we don't have.” The President may have the constitutional power to sign treaties, but how an international treaty is legislated domestically is a job of the U.S. Congress and particularly in this case the US Senate.
These considerations must contextualize Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s announcement today that the U.S. will help build $100 billion in annual funding to developing countries by the year 2020 for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. The announcement is a serious commitment by the United States. It allays the fears of some critics for the time being. But there’s good reason to be wary of trumpeting success too early.
The European Union and several developing country leaders at the COP15 plenary today reasserted their demands for more emissions reductions from the U.S. and China. The U.S. reductions commitment at this point is pegged at a 17% reduction by 2020 using a 2005 baseline and a 4% reduction by 2020 using the 1990 baseline of the Kyoto Protocol, which the U.S. has never ratified. Those countries obligated under the Kyoto Protocol to meet certain percentages of emissions reductions based on that 1990 baseline are not happy with the paltry amount the U.S. has offered, despite the American claim that reductions will stand at 85% by 2050. The money is great but the emissions reductions are not.
With both the U.S. and China thus lacking on the emissions reductions front, COP15 comes down to the widely predicted showdown and hopes of an agreement between the two countries.
Secretary Clinton’s announcement places China on the defensive as the potential spoiler of COP15 and releases some of the pressure on the U.S. in terms of financing commitments to present more substantial solutions for now. Mexico City will determine that, buying some time. In terms of “Hopenhagen,” then, rather than entering into a situation of impossibly high expectations, today’s developments set the stage politically for President Obama tomorrow to leverage concessions from China and to fulfill at least some of the hopes of COP15.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Environmental Bits and Pieces - December 16, 2009
First, the lowly menhaden and those fish oil pills you've been taking. BTW, it seems to me that I've read that fish oil isn't so good at reducing triglycerides after all. I was using up the last of mine and not planning to get more even before I read this.
I think that the situation in science is not as bad as these two paint it, but I agree that the choices on global warming are ultimately political. I would urge, however, that those choices be based on good science. And I think that the predominance of good science is on one side of the argument - that we humans are producing too much carbon dioxide and warming the globe. The idea of "scientific purity" in this article is itself an abstraction that is being used to mislead. It's true that there is a range of behavior among scientists, and that some of it isn't pretty. But the worst (I presume it's the worst that is being quoted over and over) of what's in those e-mails sounds like the kind of overstatement that frustration can lead to. I've said as much at times and have meant none of it as a guide to action.
Here's a rundown of how a climate treaty might fare in the Senate. Treaties need 67 votes in the Senate to be ratified. Given that we have 40 members of the Party of No and 1 member of the Party of Lieberman, the prospect for ratifying a treaty supporting sunshine as a positive force in the world seems slim. So this kind of calculation is going to be important for the START treaty and later nonproliferation treaties as well.
I think that the situation in science is not as bad as these two paint it, but I agree that the choices on global warming are ultimately political. I would urge, however, that those choices be based on good science. And I think that the predominance of good science is on one side of the argument - that we humans are producing too much carbon dioxide and warming the globe. The idea of "scientific purity" in this article is itself an abstraction that is being used to mislead. It's true that there is a range of behavior among scientists, and that some of it isn't pretty. But the worst (I presume it's the worst that is being quoted over and over) of what's in those e-mails sounds like the kind of overstatement that frustration can lead to. I've said as much at times and have meant none of it as a guide to action.
Here's a rundown of how a climate treaty might fare in the Senate. Treaties need 67 votes in the Senate to be ratified. Given that we have 40 members of the Party of No and 1 member of the Party of Lieberman, the prospect for ratifying a treaty supporting sunshine as a positive force in the world seems slim. So this kind of calculation is going to be important for the START treaty and later nonproliferation treaties as well.
Bits and Pieces - December 16, 2009
A whole parallel world at the edge of what it means to be alive.
Even NRA members think there should be some controls on gun sales.
Obama's Nobel speech: "Obama is wielding these ideas and images in an effort to forge a new political consensus in America."
Why does Joe Lieberman want to drive up the cost of health insurance and kill 150,000 people? And why is it that conservatives can talk about "death panels" but liberals can't talk about the continuing killing? I know, because we're decent people who don't say nasty things. But my patience is running short.
Back to the future with Glass-Steagall!
A graph for all those relatives who think the deficit is Obama's fault.
In 1945, Vannevar Bush predicts "cheap complex devices of great reliability," including computing machines, the copy machine, voice-to-text, and something that might be considered a precursor of the World Wide Web. (I do object to his "girls," but that was how they talked and thought in those primitive days.)
Twenty questions for all those relatives who think the health care bill is flawed enough that they are leaving the Democratic Party.
Even NRA members think there should be some controls on gun sales.
Obama's Nobel speech: "Obama is wielding these ideas and images in an effort to forge a new political consensus in America."
Why does Joe Lieberman want to drive up the cost of health insurance and kill 150,000 people? And why is it that conservatives can talk about "death panels" but liberals can't talk about the continuing killing? I know, because we're decent people who don't say nasty things. But my patience is running short.
Back to the future with Glass-Steagall!
A graph for all those relatives who think the deficit is Obama's fault.
In 1945, Vannevar Bush predicts "cheap complex devices of great reliability," including computing machines, the copy machine, voice-to-text, and something that might be considered a precursor of the World Wide Web. (I do object to his "girls," but that was how they talked and thought in those primitive days.)
Twenty questions for all those relatives who think the health care bill is flawed enough that they are leaving the Democratic Party.
More Iran
Bill Broad and David Sanger come to the latest document party a day late. They say out what has been implicit in earlier articles.
And another of Iran's nuclear negotiating team has resigned. (h/t to Steve) Very likely an indication of the infighting within Iran.
Back in the US, the House has passed the "draconian sanctions" bill, but some are showing better sense.
Intelligence officials say they have yet to authenticate the document...Well, that's a pretty big hurdle.
Diplomats raised the possibility that the publication of the memo on The Times of London Web site late Sunday could be part of an effort to raise international alarm over Iran’s intentions or progress in developing nuclear weapons capacity.Ya think?
“This information’s been sloshing around for well over a year,” said one American official, who insisted on anonymity because he was discussing sensitive intelligence information. “It’s not new to the intelligence people. They’ve taken account of it. If, in fact, the document’s on the level, it shows the Iranians at some point were interested in testing an initiator. That’s not a warhead or the core of a bomb. It’s another reminder — as if one were needed — that the Iranians have a lot of explaining to do when it comes to things nuclear.”And so Iran tests another missile to let us all know what they think of such document-rattling. Which is really dumb. If indeed the purpose of the leak was to disrupt the talks, Iran's responding in this way just adds to the case against them.
And another of Iran's nuclear negotiating team has resigned. (h/t to Steve) Very likely an indication of the infighting within Iran.
Back in the US, the House has passed the "draconian sanctions" bill, but some are showing better sense.
Innovation and Fear
Back in the 1960s, when I was finishing graduate school, finding a job was a seller’s market if you had a science degree. (Well, it was if you were male, but that’s another post.) Scientific American was loaded with full-page ads recruiting scientists and engineers to chemical and aerospace companies. A “grand tour” of several companies across the country was expected.The United States was rebuilding its infrastructure, developing new things, and helping Europe to rebuild. The interstate highway system, NASA, and, yes, the nuclear weapons establishment, along with the foundations of today’s computational society.
Vannevar Bush had laid the intellectual groundwork for a government-science-industrial partnership during World War II as it became clear that science would be the source of the decisive weapons for that war. But he also had recommendations for keeping that partnership fruitful after the war, and they were largely followed, which was the engine keeping that seller’s market going in the sixties.
It’s always easy to mistake one thing for another, with a bit of greed thrown in, along with overconfidence that comes with success, and pretty soon we had a bunch of self-satisfied folks insisting that it was solely the free market and industry that drove those economic and technological miracles. Ronald Reagan and numerous legislators, Republican for sure, but also Democrats convinced of the free-market line, Vannevar Bush’s playing ground was tilted toward industry. And so the goose that laid those golden eggs was slit from gullet to vent, and, sadly, there were no eggs inside.
Today, J. was quoting Brian Jenkins on fearful Americans. I think that fear is something that happens when your mind doesn’t have anything better to do with itself. It probably goes back to ancestral hominids, when being too concerned that something awful might happen was likely to shorten your life by a bit, but not as much as not being sufficiently afraid of the tiger in the bushes.
We’ve been ripe for something better to do with our minds since the 1970s. Something to distract from the culture wars, shag carpeting, hot-tubbing, the oil embargo, obsessive running, environmental pollution, and terrorists. Some of those problems, to those of us who came of age in more optimistic times, seem ripe for putting our minds to. But now we’ve got that free market standing in the way, not to mention those financial innovations that a bunch of folks who didn’t have anything better to do came up with and sank the economy. The free-marketers have done their best to gut government research and to buy university research, while destroying their own capacities.
So it’s time for a change. Unfortunately, we no longer have, as we had in the sixties, a government in which most participants are concerned with the future of the country, so that’s another barrier.I’m hoping that President Obama will be able to press his green energy initiatives forward. In the fifties and sixties, it was the transistor and space travel. Transistors at that time were space-alien-looking things, a cap on a tripod, only a bit smaller than your thumb. And we’ve got the Hubble telescope and Burt Rutan, even if we lost some of our nerve on the way to space.
That kind of excitement, along with other initiatives and the spinoff from all of them, gave us something to do besides fear.
There’s a chicken-and-egg character to innovation and fear. We’ve added in, since the sixties, the free-market freedom to be afraid that getting cancer will bankrupt you. That builds in a number of barriers to innovation, as David Leonhardt points out. So we need health care reform too.
The Next Big Thing is getting off the carbon energy bandwagon. Hard products to revitalize a manufacturing industry, and hard problems to put our minds to. It’s looking like President Obama is inclined toward a more Vannevar-Bushian model than we’ve had for a while, but he’s got Congress to contend with. The demands of private companies have to be balanced by a strong role for the government and the universities, and the universities have to be decommercialized. Basic research has to be part of the mix, even though our decades-long neglect means we will want solutions right now.
The Europeans are already ahead of us, and the Chinese are looking at nuclear. If we’re worried about how careful the Chinese are going to be about their nuclear plants, then maybe we should be looking into nuclear safety and develop gadgets and plant designs to sell them. And so on. Let’s get back to looking at solutions, not just the worst-case outcome.
[Photo credits: Hubble photograph of a jet in Carina from here; transistor from here; Space Ship Two from here.]
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Bits and Pieces - December 15, 2009
Men are veiling themselves in a protest against the government's treatment of women in Iran. Gender-related, not-illegal actions may be a way to undermine the government's authority.
A photographic tour through the Volgodonsk Nuclear Power Plant. A couple of corrections: The photo (about a quarter of the way down) with the caption "That thing is located deep inside into the reactor; that’s where clusters with uranium fuel are loaded" is of a fuel assembly. It's similar to those in many reactors and worth a look if you don't know what a fuel assembly looks like. A little further down, the "huge thing" in the powerhouse hall is a generator, not a reactor. (h/t to Adam Rofer)
Why James Chartrand Wears Women’s Underpants. Sigh.
Olaf Otto Becker: Greenland Melting
A photographic tour through the Volgodonsk Nuclear Power Plant. A couple of corrections: The photo (about a quarter of the way down) with the caption "That thing is located deep inside into the reactor; that’s where clusters with uranium fuel are loaded" is of a fuel assembly. It's similar to those in many reactors and worth a look if you don't know what a fuel assembly looks like. A little further down, the "huge thing" in the powerhouse hall is a generator, not a reactor. (h/t to Adam Rofer)
Why James Chartrand Wears Women’s Underpants. Sigh.
Olaf Otto Becker: Greenland Melting
Monday, December 14, 2009
Climate Bits and Pieces - December 14, 2009
George Monbiot and Ben Goldacre assess the damage rampant privatization has done to America's energy prospects.
Another sort of religion than we've become to accustomed to here in the US.
The AP's assessment of those hacked e-mails.
Gorbachev on climate change.
Andrei Sakharov on the rule of reason.
Another sort of religion than we've become to accustomed to here in the US.
The AP's assessment of those hacked e-mails.
Gorbachev on climate change.
Andrei Sakharov on the rule of reason.
Strange How These Documents Surface Just When Iran Makes a Move
The Times of London claims to have a document indicating that Iran is working on uranium deuteride neutron initiators for nuclear weapons.
The article, like so many of its type, presents a document of unknown provenance from anonymous sources. Mark Fitzpatrick, a reliable analyst, is quoted, but I wouldn't be surprised if the more sensational of his quotes were taken out of context. And he attaches strong "if" clauses to what he's said.
Jeffrey Lewis notes that A. Q. Khan, who's been restless lately, has talked about uranium deuteride as a neutron initiator, and that Iran has gotten information from Khan. So Khan or one of his circle may be the Times's "Asian intelligence source," thoroughly unreliable, as Albright points out in that link and I did earlier.
And the timing, just as sanctions are being discussed and Iran makes another proposal, seems suspicious. Every time Iran tries to get a bit more credibility (and it certainly could do that more effectively!), something like this shows up. Sort of makes one suspicious.
Update: Bob Mackey has a good post about secrets when they don't stay secret.
The article, like so many of its type, presents a document of unknown provenance from anonymous sources. Mark Fitzpatrick, a reliable analyst, is quoted, but I wouldn't be surprised if the more sensational of his quotes were taken out of context. And he attaches strong "if" clauses to what he's said.
Jeffrey Lewis notes that A. Q. Khan, who's been restless lately, has talked about uranium deuteride as a neutron initiator, and that Iran has gotten information from Khan. So Khan or one of his circle may be the Times's "Asian intelligence source," thoroughly unreliable, as Albright points out in that link and I did earlier.
And the timing, just as sanctions are being discussed and Iran makes another proposal, seems suspicious. Every time Iran tries to get a bit more credibility (and it certainly could do that more effectively!), something like this shows up. Sort of makes one suspicious.
Update: Bob Mackey has a good post about secrets when they don't stay secret.
COP15 Up and Down
Just something quick here. Big events of the day at Bella Center in Copenhagen have included the walk-out by the G-77 (they may be coming back at 7pm) in protest over the possibility of developed countries abandoning the Kyoto Protocol track. African Union came together as one in protest. Also, Sec of Energy Steven Chu announced the US renewable energy technology initiative, a proposed $350 million for clean techs in developing countries. The IEA's new data. And a new Yes Men prank committing Canada to a 40% emissions reduction by 2020. I'll leave you with some info from the IEA:
"With energy accounting for 84 percent of global CO2 emissions, the IEA has analysed what needs to be done to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent, in line with a 2°C increase in global temperature. On current trends, unless new measures are taken, global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 40 Gigatonnes (Gt) by 2030 (29 Gt in 2007) and continue rising thereafter, whereas climate stabilisation requires emissions to peak around 2020 and then decline."
"The 450 Policy scenario of our flagship publication World Energy Outlook 2009 is the right path to green growth but it is a radical departure from current trends," Mr. Tanaka stressed. "For instance, the world would need to retire a significant portion of today's coal-fired electricity plants before the end of their lifetime - by 2030, early closures around the world would amount to the equivalent of today's total coal-based power generation in Japan, EU and the US. Around 60 percent of global electricity production in 2030 would need to come from a mix of renewables (37 percent), nuclear (18 percent) and plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (5 percent). Another illustration is the dramatic shift needed in car sales, with hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles representing 60 percent of sales in 2030, from around 1 percent today."
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