Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Bits and Pieces - June 1, 2010

There's plenty being written about the Israeli attack on that Turkish aid ship bound for Gaza, but I'll choose just two.

Juan Cole points out that the United Nations Security Council resolution goes much further in condemning Israel than the United States has allowed resolutions to in the past.

Haaretz blasts the Israeli government.

On the lighter side,

What your e-mail address says about you.

A photoessay on the last of the typewriter repairmen. This is what my father did for a living. He started with IBM as a "customer engineer," which meant a repairman who went to the customer's place of business to repair typewriters. In true IBM style, he had to wear a suit and tie. He later built his own typewriter repair, rental, and reconditioning business. I was his chief reconditioning mechanic. I disassembled IBM standard typewriters so that their mechanisms could be soaked in solvent to be cleaned (all rubber removed) and their cases painted. Then I reassembled them with new rubber and repainted cases. My father did the last adjustments. He paid me minimum wage (at that time, $1 an hour, not bad for an eleven-year-old).

Profit, Loss, and Proliferation

Khodorkovsky: Corruption Is Going To Stop the Development of Humanity

by Molly Cernicek and Cheryl Rofer

Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, former chairman of Yukos Oil who has been in a Russian prison since 2000, writes in an op-ed for the Washington Post that “it is incumbent upon world leaders to address a root cause of new risks of nuclear proliferation: the corruption that has spread across the globe.” He highlights the risks of civilian and military officials selling nuclear secrets to whoever is willing to buy, including terrorist groups that “seek bloodshed for the sake of bloodshed.”

Khodorkovsky lists some examples of corruption in Russia and rightly states that one of Russia’s exports is “corruption, fueled by a host of eager importers, most notably developed countries in the West.” And ends his piece urging that the Group of 20 make battling corruption as important as nuclear disarmament, otherwise “corruption is going to stop the development of humanity.”

That’s a big claim – corruption is going to stop the development of humanity. From one perspective, one can argue that corruption has always been part of micro and macro economies from the beginning of human time as the rich or those intent on being rich are driven to make money any way they can and either make or break the rules to ensure their expectations become reality. Economies adjust and accept some level of corruption as a natural part of operation.

Rules and regulations set up to go after certain types of corruption and ebb and flow over time. In the United States currently, the testimonies and actions of Wall Street bankers and US government officials bear close similarities to the 1930s following the Great Depression.

Russia has always had corruption even when isolated from the global economy, though some Russians believe differently. Certainly in the Soviet barter economy, some people had access to products while most did not. In those days the risks were high; any Russian citizen could be an informant, which limited the ability (outside of the Politburo) to create too big a business and network. The Soviet black market was a bunch of young men operating in ones and twos selling western goods and shaking down tourists for currency conversion.

Today corruption is common practice inside and outside the government. Russia is home to some of the biggest global crime syndicates in the world. Some have referred to it as the “verticalization of corruption” since the corruption is not about manipulating the state but instead about the state capturing business. Those in power during Communism got top governmental positions in new Russia and continued to control the money. The young had market ideas, but no capital. That started governmental-controlled business alliances, illegal and legal alike, that benefitted individuals but not the country.

From a perspective of a Russian, that corruption can stopp the development of humanity is not far-fetched. Russia has little economic development to show despite two decades of prosperous oil sales. Their men are dying at an average age of 57. They are not reproducing enough to maintain their population. Outside the business and tourist attractions of Moscow and St. Petersburg, infrastructure and living standards drop substantially. Their environment has suffered dramatically. What has been dumped into streams, buried, and burned continues to impact health and nature. And the list goes on.

Khordorkovsky is right that every country should be worried about corruption and how it impacts nuclear proliferation. He could have taken it a step further though and asked who in their right mind would produce and maintain nuclear weapons knowing that the risks of corruption within the ranks hired to develop, maintain and protect these weapons will increase? One of the reasons that a nuclear war never started between 1948 and 1991 is that scientists, engineers and government officials overseeing both the US and Russian stockpiles were devoted to protecting not just their own countries from nuclear attack, but protecting the world as well. Most Russian and American nuclear weapons stewards spent their entire careers working to make the world a safer place in spite of nuclear weapons – many with the objective of massive reduction. They advised their government officials in tense and difficult situations. They were patriotic and they knew why and how to keep secrets. To them, this responsibility was about country, flag and apple pie/piroshky.

The world has changed substantially since 1991. Endemic and increasing corruption within the nuclear complexes and its potential for proliferation can be met only by decreasing the numbers of nuclear weapons.

BP Now Cutting Pipe

Here's the live feed.

Also some good graphics here and here. These finally gave me a good idea of what we're seeing in the live feed. The first has a good explanation and photos as well.

Monday, May 31, 2010

More on That Israeli Attack

Contributions from

Stephen Walt

Andrew Exum

Daniel Drezner

But Flying Rodent says it all.

Bits and Pieces - Good News Edition

We could use some good, or at least pleasant, news. I noted yesterday that US-Russia relations seem to be continuing to improve.

During the Cambrian Era (500 million years ago and more), a wild variety of living things came into being. Some were so strange that their fossils are difficult to interpret. Apparently some of those strange things continued on into the Ordovician Era, when plants appeared and some of our ancestors came out of the ocean and onto land. Chris Nedin tells us more.

A festival of science is being held in New York. Unfortunately, the AP news article doesn't give any dates. It sounds like it will be sometime soon, though.

Ohio is adding jobs at the fastest rate in 22 years.

The Economist gets tired of MoDo and other commentators calling for their daddies in the midst of the oil spill. I include this because it's refreshing to see a voice in the MSM that isn't saying that President Obama will lose his job because he's not comforter-in-chief.

Israel's Memorial Day Attack on Humanitarian Aid

The most self-destructive actions of a regime determined to keep people down are attacks on nonviolent actions. So we remember the fire hoses and dogs turned on demonstrators in the American South during the 1960s as a turning point.

Today Israeli special forces attacked and killed people attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. One can only wonder what made the government think that sending armed military forces, ready for battle, against unarmed aid ships was a good idea. We feel so strongly that Gaza must be made into a concentration camp, or punished for the existence of Hamas, that we must keep food and medical supplies out at all costs? Stop the boats and search them for weapons, perhaps.

The reports are conflicting and undoubtedly spun for the greatest effect. Marc Lynch is a good person to follow, and TPM Cafe also provides background and commentary. And an Israeli gives some insight.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

More Positive News From Russia

Some good news: Russia and the United States have agreed to work together to stabilize Kyrgyzstan.

And President Dmitry Medvedev will visit Silicon Valley next month. Should be interesting.

BP's Next Option

I'm following the Twitter stream from the incident command for the BP/Transocean/Halliburton oil spill, and the explanations aren't always illuminating. The problem seems to be the usual one that technical people have communicating with reporters, or perhaps I should reverse those nouns. I couldn't tell what was planned until the twitter stream gave me this graphic:



Now that is one humongous file (click on it for the whole thing). So along with all the other workers I listed the other day, count in some number of graphic artists to help tell us what's going on.

That next step has to do with containment only, not with fixing the well. I do hope they've been calculating the effects of the methane hydrates better this time. That was something that baffled me about that first attempt at containment. Oil companies know very well about methane hydrates, and it's obvious that there's a fair amount of methane coming out of the well. That error might have come from an underestimate of the overall flow or an underestimate of how much methane was in it.

A difficulty I have in watching spillcam is the scale of things. The blowout preventer is five stories tall. But the flanges, tubes, and fittings resemble vacuum systems I have built, which are more my size. So I have to keep reminding myself that those bolts on the flanges are probably each the size of my fist. Or bigger.

Update: More here about what might go right and wrong, particularly toward the end of the post.

Perfect Tommy, at Balloon Juice, has also recognized that problem of scale and has rescaled the graphic above to give you a better idea of just how difficult this operation is.

This Is Satire, Right?

On domestic issues, House Minority Leader John Boehner is unequivocal in his support for three items: Quench, Dawn and OxiClean.

Quench refers to the body lotion, Dawn the dishwashing liquid and OxiClean the laundry stain remover -- the first two are products of Procter & Gamble, one of the largest employers in Boehner's Ohio.

These state secrets surfaced when I asked the perpetually tan Boehner, who insists he was "born tan," how to treat my sunburn. Firing up a Camel Light, his first of three during our 40-minute interview in his Capitol office, he said, "Ah, I'm a Quench believer."

Before we moved on to more pressing concerns, Boehner riffed on other favorite products. Dawn works not only on dishes but on oil-slicked birds, as the manufacturer's Web site boasts. As for OxiClean, look no further than Boehner's dazzling white shirt.
Or is Kathleen Parker looking to become the first female David Broder?

Soooo many problems here...but I'll just refer back to the WaPo's wondering why they're losing women readers. Is it possible that, if those words are indeed taken from Parker's interview with Boehner, he felt he had to patronize an interviewer with two X chromosomes? And the interviewer didn't even notice?

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Bits and Pieces - May 29, 2010

I have been very lazy today after a demanding week. Usually in "Bits and Pieces" I list links to stuff I've read. Today I've read some of it, but some of it looks like it might be worth reading, and I just haven't gotten to it. The most worthwhile thing I did today was reading some of the magazines in my dead-tree pile. Or maybe it was filling the birdfeeders and birdbath. I've been trying to convince some western tanagers to nest nearby. Didn't see them today, though. It's warmer than it's been, and they may have moved to the ponderosa altitude.

More volcanic eruptions, this time in Guatemala and Ecuador.

Correction of some bald-faced lies. The press is getting somewhat better at this.

Why does the right hate science?

This is peculiar; I need to check it out some more. Why is France sending uranium to Russia? Especially when Russia is sending enriched uranium to the US to be blended down and used in our civilian reactors. If your electricity comes from nuclear power, half of it is coming from former Soviet weapons.

Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001. I haven't had a chance to look at this yet, but Brian Jenkins is one of the best in this area.

Etrogs

Energy and Environment

I find this incredibly irritating. Gallup runs its poll on environmental protection a few days ago at the height of public attention to BP's attempts to stop the spew of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

The poll asks two questions regarding 1) whether environmental protection or energy production should be given higher priority; and 2) whether environmental protection or economic development should be given higher priority.

Gallup and the news announce that Americans favor environmental protection over energy production for the first time in the ten-year history of these poll questions. The overall finding:
In March, by 50% to 43%, Americans said it was more important to develop U.S. energy supplies than to protect the environment, continuing a trend in the direction of energy production seen since 2007. Now, the majority favor environmental protection, by 55% to 39% -- the second-largest percentage (behind the 58% in 2007) favoring the environment in the 10-year history of the question.
That's just really great. Except that it perpetuates the conceptual framework that dichotomizes environment on one side and energy and economy on the other. That is precisely the dualism we need to overcome and that is what the most innovative work on new technologies, new methods, and new policies is doing. This kind of conceptual framework in the Gallup poll is a restraint and it really doesn't help to ask Americans to keep thinking of the energy-environment-economy relationship in those terms.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Looks Like Russia Really Means It

To go along with the United Nations Security Council resolution on sanctions, that is. Or at least Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to think so.

Three things to take away from this: Ahmadinejad (and presumably others in the Iranian government) is really distressed that Russia seems to have deserted him. Russia is serious about the sanctions. Iran feels that the sanctions will hurt, either economically or in prestige.

The interaction will continue. Brazil's President Lula is lobbying American President Obama.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Matisia Dulce

If You Need a Laugh

I haven't laughed so hard in ages.

DougJ and the Balloon Juice crowd spoof the Republican Party.

I Blame Action Movies

I'm watching the video feed from the top kill, and so far it's a little more interesting than watching paint dry. I think that what they are doing is assessing the various parts of the apparatus, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to know exactly what I'm looking at. I can identify probable functions of various parts, but I don't understand how the whole goes together.

Emptywheel (bmaz in particular) has an open thread going. So far it is dominated by someone who has no idea that the mud pipe will be attached to the well. His concern is that the mud is just going to go all over the place. There is also some confusion as to the difference between top kill and a junk shot.

If this were an action movie, Captain Obama would be sitting in his captain's chair with a big monitor of the action. "Pipe in place," he would order masterfully, and we would zoom in on the pipe moving into place. "Start mud flow." There would be some slight jerks of the equipment, the oil plume would, after a suitably suspenseful pause, slow down just perceptibly, then unambiguously, and the water would become a clear blue. Fishes and octopuses would begin to return.

And it wouldn't take longer than ten minutes. With suitable music.

What is this stuff of checking everything out anyway? Boooooring! Let's get to the main event.

Update: Here's some commentary on the video that makes more sense. Even the experts can't entirely tell what's happening. And some labeling of the video here.

Some Things The Government Is Doing

Administration-wide

The Department of Energy

I'm getting a lot of good stuff from the Spill Command's Twitter feed. Highly recommend it. It might be a good idea for the administration to use additional modes of communication, though.

Wow!

I just checked out spillcam again, and the most gorgeous long fish, an eel perhaps, swam into view. It appeared to be about the length of that pipe in the top third of the screen but was closer to the camera, so it would have been shorter in absolute length. Whatever the length of the pipe was.

It swam around the cloud of oil, inspecting it, inserted its front third into it with no apparent ill effects. It did make a quick motion, perhaps snorting some of the oil out of its mouth, and then swam off.

Oh man. Now I'd like to watch all day in case another undersea character shows up. I hope they're recording this.

Doing Something

I see that the Boston Globe and the Los Angeles Times have joined the outcry that President Obama must (must!) "take charge" of the BP/Halliburton oil spill and FIX IT NOW! Tim Rutten warns direly that the President's political reputation is On The Line! That should motivate him.

I noted yesterday that the commenters on a Balloon Juice thread seemed to express a greater degree of outrage in conjunction with a lesser degree of information. That seems to be generally true.

Another blogger or commenter (sorry, lost track) noted that uninformed hollering for instant fixes might be considered panic.

There seem to be a couple of problems here. One is that there are a lot of people out there who don't understand at all what it takes to do stuff that involves heavy equipment and big operations, like drilling thousands of feet under thousands of feet of water, then controlling immense pressures and volumes of thick liquids mixed with gases.

Another is that people are not focusing on the real problem when they holler, "Do something." I guess panicked people can't be expected to. But there are several problems here.
1. Plug the well.
2. Assess liability and determine penalties.
3. Set things up so that this doesn't happen again. This has a scientific/engineering and a legislative component.
4. Deal with the consequences to innocent people and the environment.

Like any wonk, I like to focus on plugging the well. And that seems to be what the "Do something" crowd is demanding. But it takes time. Sorry. Planning who and what need to be where when. Figuring out how to fit the pipes that are going to drive the mud and cement into the broken wellhead. Which requires figuring out how the wellhead is broken. Which requires manipulating those remotely-controlled submarines and then analyzing the data they get. Figuring out how much of the components of the mud and cement are going to be needed, where and how to mix them, where to stage them to get them into the pumps that will pump them down to the well.

And how many people does that take? People to run the project software to get who and what to the where; keep doing the runs with different inputs, depending on the answers you get from suppliers, from what the software tells you clearly isn't going to work. So that's a bunch of people. People to manipulate those remotely-controlled subs. People to monitor the data they're sending up; some of this is computer-controlled, but computers do dumb things, so you need people to back them up. People to calculate how much cement, how to set up the ship and piping, what the forces are of the stuff coming out of the well and the force needed to shove things together, whether the pumps and other equipment can withstand or generate these forces. Plus the people who already have been working on the pipe that has been sucking up some of the spill and the people who have been figuring these sorts of things for the dispersant operations. And I'm barely scratching the surface; this Washington Post article does a pretty good job of listing things that are being done, although it doesn't enumerate jobs to the same detail I've done.

BP has a lot of motivation to get this done as soon as possible. That uncontrolled flow is ruining the reservoir, to take the most obvious oil-company motivation. Plus the liability, plus the ruined reputation. The ruined reputation is now a sunk cost, but the reservoir might still be saved.

But stopping the flow involves many, many people who, as Peter noted, are most likely living on coffee and rehydrated ramen noodles and working around the clock to make it stop.

Spillcam

Here's the link. I can't find a way to embed it. BP is tweeting that coverage will continue through the "top kill" operation.