People joke about President Obama’s abilities at eleven-dimensional
chess. I think that Obama has a long-term strategy, more understandable than
eleven-dimensional chess. I also think that it’s quite different from much of
what passes for strategy in political Washington.
Obama came into office in January 2009 with an enormous
number of problems facing the country. He had been dealing with the financial
crisis since his election. That crisis was, in a way, the culmination of the
financialization of the American economy, which, along with tax and other
policy, had hollowed out prospects for the middle class. The country was stuck
in two wars that had very little to do with its national interests. Other
aspects of the “War on Terror” that damage the perception of the US abroad and
damage civil liberties at home persisted long after any utility had
disappeared. North Korea had demonstrated nuclear weapons, and Iran was engaged
in pursuit of technology that could make nuclear weapons possible for them.
Perhaps the most difficult problem Obama faced, though, was
an apathetic electorate and media that depicted that president as the only
political actor in the country. Democracy can’t work without the participation
of the people.
Obama would have seen that apathy before, as a community
organizer. Poor communities are often demoralized or do not know how to fight
for what they need. The organizer’s job is to get citizens active in helping
themselves. This involves many things: educating citizens on their rights and
ways to go about changing their circumstances, which would include the
political process; and encouraging the citizens to take action on their own
behalf.
That last is the trick to successful community organization.
The members of the community must achieve their own successes; having an
organizer do it for them is likely to deepen their feelings of incompetence. That
was not what the columnists said Obama “must” do, whether that was cutting
taxes or entitlements, or giving inspiring speeches; they emphasized the
president as the initiator of action.
There are indeed some things that the president can do.
Closing Guantanamo might have been one, but early moves in that direction made
it obvious that public support would be necessary. In fact, public support is
necessary for most of what the President does. Additionally, many of the things
that columnists like to say the President “must” do are in fact the the
business of Congress, whose members are more directly responsible to the voters.
Community organizing is usually done face to face. You talk
to people, find out where they’re getting stuck, what their gripes are.
Community organizing the whole nation is a real challenge. And Congress,
although nominally an instrument of the people, also responds to monied interests
that may not represent the people. Obama needed a two-pronged strategy:
convince voters that they needed to become more active and turn Congress toward
the voters. Obama and the people working for him knew that he had a
significant majority of the voters on his side in both the 2008 and 2012
elections. That was a place to start.
Obama’s campaign contributions were largely from
individuals, and the campaigns emphasized this. As president, Obama appeals to
voters in his speeches to contact their congressional representatives. And,
most importantly, he doesn’t present himself as the great solo problem-solver.
Not the magic president landing his jet plane on the aircraft carrier to
“Mission Accomplished.” Just trying to do his job, with your help.
Leaving the development of the health care bill up to
Congress indicated that the President is not the only actor. Voters could work
through their representatives to get what they wanted in the bill. It was up to
Congress to do its job responsibly. The process was much messier than an
imagined comprehensive bill dropped from the President’s Office onto Congress
and then voted on.
An important part of a community organizer’s job is not to
act when others should. When they act, they feel empowered, they learn, and
they are ready to do more. The conventional wisdom, however, was of a president
presenting bold initiatives to Congress and rallying the nation with inspiring
speeches. So there was much criticism of Obama for not “taking the initiative.”
That conventional wisdom was also unsound politically. A
strong stand, particularly in the face of stated
determined Republican opposition, would merely solidify that
opposition. If the people are behind a
bill, it is harder for the Republicans to oppose them without looking bad.
***
I became responsible for managing environmental cleanups in
an organization where “delegating up” was standard practice. One delegates up
by acting as if one doesn’t know how to approach a problem or by simply
ignoring it. It’s like the inability of husbands to comprehend the operation of
the washing machine. For it to fully take hold, the managers have to be willing
to step in a little too eagerly, like that activist president of the
conventional wisdom.
We had to assess what needed to be done and plan the work, let
contracts, make sure the cleanup was done correctly, assess whether what was
done met state laws for health protection, and write a report that would be
part of the legal record of compliance. The team included samplers, engineers,
statisticians, chemists, and technical writers.
I laid out the work and priorities in the first few meetings
with team leaders. There was not much response.
That lack of response is unnerving. If the team wasn’t doing
what they were supposed to do, maybe the project wouldn’t get done. There was
no way I could do everything myself, but the temptation to pick up the slack
was enormous. I gritted my teeth and did my part of the job, nothing more. Talked
to team members about the project. Then one day one of them asked some
questions and made a suggestion in a meeting. And others began to respond.
***
Mobilizing the people was not Obama’s only task. Dealing
with the dysfunction in Congress was necessary as well.
Democrats in Congress were badly split. The Blue Dogs could
not be expected to vote a party line, and the rest were thoroughly cowed.
Republicans had been charging toward extreme rightwing territory for a long
time. What had been centrist or even Republican policies a few decades earlier
were now far on the left.
Civil political discourse was badly damaged by rightwing
talk radio and lazy mainstream media, a large segment of which checked in with
the Drudge Report every morning. The journalistic standard was to report the
controversy, meaning that both sides got equal time, no matter how crazy, no
matter how few people supported one of them. This greatly favored rightwing
extremism.
A straightforward attack on rightwing desires to disassemble
government would throw gasoline on the rightwing fires. The citizens that Obama
wanted to mobilize would be frightened off.
A route to the high ground was open. The media admired
bipartisan initiatives. Polls showed that large numbers of citizens wanted
Congress to find a way to work together for the good of the country. So Obama
would do everything he could to find bipartisan solutions for the country. He offered
Republican-leaning solutions to Republicans and then was willing to split the
difference, and split the difference again. The ACA and New START Treaty
passed, along with a
long list of other achievements. He used executive actions where necessary
and desirable, ending the war in Iraq and withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.
He allowed Congress to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”
He didn’t crow about his successes but quietly and carefully
worked with Congress for bipartisan solutions. Because citizens wanted
cooperation and bipartisanship, he built credibility and confidence, a base
against which Republican intransigence came to appear more and more
unreasonable.
By 2010, they were explicit: Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell said that their primary goal was to make President Obama a one-term
president. Nothing else mattered, not even the good of the country. They didn’t
offer alternatives, just ending this presidency.
Republicans have
been setting up their internal incentives to favor a continuing march to
the right. They have been protected by the media bubble of Fox News and talk
radio, which cheer the march on. They have used their political power within
the states to redistrict in their favor. But they came to a point of ideology
some time ago that most of the country is very uncomfortable with. As the
Republicans of Indiana found out, their long-time senator, Richard Lugar, may
be unacceptable to the party, but Richard Mourdock, the Tea Party’s favorite,
was unacceptable to the state’s voters. This dynamic was ripe for exploitation
by President Obama.
The strategy here is simple. Present Republicans with a
reasonable deal, sometimes woven out of earlier Republican ideas now
unacceptable to an ever more extreme party. Although the media liked to say that “both sides” were being intransigent or that “both sides” had
virtue in their positions, it eventually became evident to the public that one
side was less reasonable than the other. As Obama took the more reasonable
ground, a strategy of unthinking opposition drove the Republicans to ever more
ridiculous extremes. Thus, Mourdock was one of their candidates in the 2012 election
telling women that rape was their lot in life. And now Republicans loudly
object to the nomination of a moderate Republican as Secretary of Defense.
Like moving the public to greater involvement, this strategy
could not be expected to bear fruit immediately. It's been four years.
***
His reelection made Obama the most popular President since
Dwight Eisenhower. More popular than the right’s idealized Ronald Reagan. More
political capital than what George Bush gloated over. And his popularity is
increasing since the election. (Time/CNN.
NBC
News/WSJ. WaPo/ABC
News.) The polls are in Obama’s favor or moving that way on the big issues.
Raising
the debt ceiling. Gun
control. Immigration.
Climate
change. Congressional job approval is at an all-time
low, and Republicans are taking
the blame.
Obama no longer has to worry about reelection and, with that
public support, can propose bold initiatives. Three times since the election,
John Boehner has chosen to violate the Hastert Rule, that bills can be brought
to the House floor only if a majority of Republicans will vote for them: the
fiscal cliff bill, aid
for victims of Hurricane Sandy, and delaying
the debt ceiling fight passed the House with majorities composed of
Republicans and Democrats.
In his first four years, Obama has been reasonable to what
some consider the point of unreasonableness. He has built his reputation and
popular support with that reasonableness. This, and the very favorable election
and poll results, is now be the basis for bolder action, which we are beginning
to see.
Obama is taking back the rhetoric that has been
appropriated by the right. In his remarks
on Sandy Hook and his
inaugural address, he spoke powerfully of faith and God. In his speech
announcing his gun control initiative, he spoke of the rights of the victims
mass shootings being abridged. “Liberal” is beginning not to sound so bad.
A task force on gun control headed by Vice President Joe
Biden quickly reported, and Obama has signed 23 executive orders relating to
gun control. Action is taking place on state and city levels, empowered people
acting democratically. New York has
passed a strong gun control bill already, and initiatives are under way on
gun control in Colorado, Maryland,
and other states. Gun buy-backs are springing up.
The immigration bill will
be done all at once, not spread out so that the Republicans can nibble it
down.
Since the election, the Republicans have been in such
disarray that it’s tempting to think that the party might split, and that Obama
can use this to his and Democrats’ advantage. Certainly his second inaugural
speech laid out a clear agenda and came
close to taunting in places.
The Republican Party was born out of the fight over slavery.
The Democrats wouldn’t face up to it, but the Whigs were worse. A strong
anti-slavery faction and businessmen facing unfair labor competition had
nowhere to go. Nothing in today’s America is of the magnitude of the fight over
slavery, which had simmered since 1776. Nor is there a faction of the strength
and fierceness of those opposing slavery. Today’s Republicans will survive,
although their way forward is not clear. It is likely to be something like what
Bill Clinton accomplished with the Democratic Party in the 1990s.
Until then, President Obama is in charge. The Republican
House will occasionally give some trouble, and the Senate is trying to decide
if majority rule is a good thing. But the people are becoming active, and the
narrative is moving in their direction.
2 comments:
Great piece Cheryl..., I too find that I am finding more all the time to think that maybe Obama will really do some great things going forward. Said so over on Mauberly's blog..., something like, "I think you will see a different Obama during the second term." I am glad to see that you think the same. I am beginning to see the same strategy that you do, as motive for some of the things I have bashed him about during the first term. I would have commented over at The Agonist..., but I have given up on them. Some of the comments there are the reason why.
Right on partner..., write on.
Thanks, Scott!
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